The Strait of Hormuz Is Effectively Closed — and Energy Markets Are in Shock
The most consequential energy story in years is unfolding right now. Following joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran beginning February 28 under Operation Epic Fury, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz closed on March 2, and commercial tanker traffic has dropped to near zero. The crisis threatens roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply — about 20 million barrels per day — and significant LNG volumes. Brent crude surged more than 12% in initial trading before settling near $81–82 per barrel, with Goldman Sachs and Barclays warning of a potential spike to $100 or higher if disruptions persist. QatarEnergy confirmed it halted LNG production at its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities after attacks — a direct shock to global gas markets, since Qatar supplies roughly 20% of the world’s LNG. By mid-week, Trump offered U.S. naval escorts and government-backed shipping insurance in an attempt to restore traffic flow, which eased prices modestly. As of today, the situation remains fluid. For U.S. producers, elevated oil prices are a windfall. For ratepayers and manufacturers already squeezed by rising energy costs, the timing could not be worse.
BlackRock and EQT Are Taking AES Private in a $33.4 Billion Deal
The power sector M&A wave just hit a new high-water mark. A consortium led by BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners and EQT agreed on March 2 to acquire AES Corporation for $15 per share in cash — a total equity value of $10.7 billion and an enterprise value of approximately $33.4 billion including assumed debt. Also in the consortium: CalPERS and the Qatar Investment Authority. AES is the world’s largest supplier of clean energy to corporations, with 11.8 GW of signed power agreements with major tech firms and 32.1 GW of total deployed generating capacity, 64% of it renewables. The deal follows Constellation’s $29 billion acquisition of Calpine earlier this year and comes amid a broader private equity land grab for generation assets ahead of the AI-driven demand surge. The transaction is expected to close in late 2026 or early 2027.
SunZia Just Finished Installing All 916 Turbines — Now Comes Commissioning
All 242 Vestas turbines have been installed at Pattern Energy’s SunZia Wind project in New Mexico, completing physical turbine installation across all 916 machines at the site — 242 Vestas V163-4.5 MW units and 674 GE Vernova 3.6-154 turbines spread across two sections, with 10 substations. The project will now move to commissioning and connection to the 885 km HVDC transmission line. Once fully operational, the 3,500 MW development will be the largest onshore wind project in U.S. history. Commercial operations are targeted for 2026. The finish line is in sight — the question is how quickly commissioning and grid interconnection can be completed.
DOE Issues the Largest Loan in Its History — $26.5 Billion to Southern Company
The Trump administration’s Office of Energy Dominance Financing closed a $26.5 billion loan package to Southern Company on February 25 — the largest single loan in DOE history. The 30-year financing, split between Georgia Power ($22.4B) and Alabama Power ($4.1B), will fund 5 GW of new natural gas generation, roughly 6 GW of nuclear uprates and license renewals, 1 GW of hydropower modernization, battery storage systems, and over 1,300 miles of transmission improvements. DOE estimates the loans will reduce Southern’s interest expenses by over $300 million annually, delivering more than $7 billion in savings to Southern’s 4.3 million customers over the loan’s term. Southern simultaneously raised its five-year capital plan to $81 billion, driven by a pipeline of more than 75 GW in prospective large-load agreements. This is “all of the above” energy policy at federal scale — and it is happening squarely in APA’s Southeast footprint.
The EIA’s 86 GW Forecast Is Holding — and Texas Is Carrying Most of It
The EIA projects 86 GW of new utility-scale generating capacity will be added to the U.S. grid in 2026, a record if realized. Solar accounts for 51% of planned additions at 43.4 GW, followed by battery storage at 28% (24 GW) and wind at 14% (11.8 GW). Texas leads solar additions at 40% of the national total and accounts for 53% of all planned battery storage. The EIA has since nudged its overall generation growth forecast slightly downward based on how much large-load demand has actually materialized so far this year, and PJM has signaled its own load forecast could come in lower than previously projected after tightening scrutiny of data center interconnection requests. The headline number is still historic — but the demand assumptions underpinning parts of it are getting a closer look.
European Gas Prices Surged 30–45% After Qatar Halted LNG Production
The same Hormuz crisis rattling oil markets hammered European natural gas. After Iranian drone strikes on QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities forced Qatar to halt LNG production, European benchmark TTF prices jumped as much as 45% in initial trading before settling into a range reflecting ongoing uncertainty. Qatar supplies roughly 20% of global LNG, and the halt sent LNG tanker day rates up more than 40% overnight. European natural gas futures later pulled back as much as 12% on reports of potential diplomatic contact between Iran and the U.S., but prices remain sharply elevated from pre-conflict levels. For U.S. LNG exporters, the signal is clear: American molecules have rarely been more valuable, and the case for continued Gulf Coast export infrastructure investment just got stronger.
Arevon’s Kelso Solar Farm Opens in Missouri — Nearly Doubling the State’s Solar Capacity
Arevon held a ribbon-cutting ceremony on March 4 at its newly operational Kelso Solar Project in Scott County, Missouri. The 430 MW, two-phase facility represents a more than $500 million investment and, when fully operational, nearly doubles Missouri’s installed solar capacity. Built by Primoris Services Corporation and backed by a long-term environmental attributes agreement with Meta, the project is Arevon’s first large-scale facility in the state. Over the life of the project, Kelso Solar is estimated to disburse more than $34 million to local governments, supporting schools, infrastructure, and first responders in Scott County. For a state currently at the center of the solar moratorium fight in the legislature, this ribbon-cutting is a concrete reminder of what’s actually being built — and who benefits.